Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 6.838433e-05 0.000082 0.000096 0.000113 0.000131 0.000151 0.000173
2025-03-02 4.953513e-05 0.000066 0.000086 0.000110 0.000138 0.000170 0.000209
2025-03-09 3.933375e-05 0.000057 0.000079 0.000108 0.000142 0.000183 0.000233
2025-03-16 3.226562e-05 0.000051 0.000075 0.000108 0.000149 0.000198 0.000261
2025-03-23 2.733302e-05 0.000047 0.000073 0.000109 0.000155 0.000213 0.000287
2025-03-30 2.268258e-05 0.000042 0.000069 0.000108 0.000160 0.000224 0.000309
2025-04-06 1.844560e-05 0.000037 0.000065 0.000105 0.000161 0.000232 0.000327
2025-04-13 1.644994e-05 0.000035 0.000064 0.000108 0.000169 0.000249 0.000356
2025-04-20 1.308349e-05 0.000031 0.000059 0.000104 0.000168 0.000253 0.000369
2025-04-27 1.098908e-05 0.000028 0.000057 0.000104 0.000172 0.000263 0.000389
2025-05-04 9.260086e-06 0.000026 0.000055 0.000103 0.000175 0.000272 0.000409
2025-05-11 8.481990e-06 0.000025 0.000056 0.000107 0.000184 0.000290 0.000440
2025-05-18 7.113233e-06 0.000023 0.000054 0.000107 0.000189 0.000303 0.000466
2025-05-25 5.344354e-06 0.000020 0.000050 0.000103 0.000188 0.000307 0.000479
2025-06-01 4.242316e-06 0.000018 0.000047 0.000102 0.000190 0.000316 0.000500
2025-06-08 3.419512e-06 0.000016 0.000046 0.000102 0.000193 0.000327 0.000523
2025-06-15 2.848326e-06 0.000015 0.000045 0.000103 0.000199 0.000340 0.000550
2025-06-22 2.215921e-06 0.000014 0.000043 0.000102 0.000201 0.000349 0.000571
2025-06-29 1.622190e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000099 0.000201 0.000354 0.000586
2025-07-06 1.410346e-06 0.000012 0.000041 0.000102 0.000210 0.000372 0.000620
2025-07-13 9.458979e-07 0.000010 0.000037 0.000098 0.000207 0.000374 0.000630
2025-07-20 6.980830e-07 0.000009 0.000036 0.000098 0.000209 0.000383 0.000651
2025-07-27 5.092205e-07 0.000008 0.000035 0.000097 0.000212 0.000392 0.000673